According to TradingView data, Bitcoin continues to trade just below the $70,000 level. Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency has declined by about 0.3% and at the time of writing is trading around $69,994.
A similar situation is observed in the altcoin sector. Ethereum is holding the important $2,000 level but is still down nearly 1% over the past day. A comparable dynamic is seen across the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
Just yesterday, the situation in the crypto market appeared to be stabilizing after Donald Trump suggested that the war with Iran could end soon. However, those expectations have now weakened. On the prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of reaching a ceasefire by the end of June had been estimated at 79% yesterday, but this figure has since fallen by 12 percentage points.
Meanwhile, investors on Wall Street are gradually returning to risk assets. Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to record capital inflows. On Tuesday, investors allocated more than $250 million to these index funds. After four months during which more than $6 billion flowed out of these products, March could mark the long-awaited turning point. Monthly inflows currently stand close to $1 billion.
The oil market has also been in focus. After Iran closed the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged sharply. However, from a peak of around $120 per barrel on Monday, prices have now fallen to roughly $83 following reports that the International Energy Agency (IEA), in coordination with G7 countries, is preparing a large-scale release of strategic oil reserves.
As the oil market appears to be stabilizing for now, investors are shifting their attention to the United States. Today at around 13:30 German time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish February inflation data. Analysts expect the rate to remain unchanged at 2.4%.
However, the inflationary effects of rising energy prices caused by the Iran conflict are unlikely to appear in these figures and may only be reflected in March data.
Nevertheless, these indicators remain crucial for the future direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy. If inflation continues to stay above the 2% target, the Fed could delay monetary easing. According to the CME FedWatch tool, most market participants currently expect the first interest rate cut no earlier than September. Weaker-than-expected inflation data, however, could bring these expectations forward.
